5a. Choose between getting $900 for sure or a 90 percent chance of getting $1,000.
A. Getting $900
B. 90 percent chance of getting $1,000
5b. Choose between losing $900 for sure or a 90 percent chance of losing $1,000.
A. Losing $900
B. 90 percent chance of losing $1,000
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The results of this simple problem set, for which most participants answer A and then B, were used to develop the thesis that would make Kahneman and Tversky famous: prospect theory. In a 1979 paper, they documented a peculiar behavioral tendency: when people faced a gain, they became risk averse; when they faced a loss, they became risk seeking. As a result of their discovery, Kahneman and Tversky debunked Bernoulli’s utility theory, a cornerstone of economic thought since the 18th century. (Bernoulli first proponed that a person’s willingness to gamble a certain amount of money was a product of how that amount related to his overall wealth—that is, $1 million means more to a millionaire than it does to a billionaire.)
Along with playing a large role in Kahneman’s being awarded the Nobel Prize in 2002, the theory also spawned a new academic pursuit, the field of behavioral economics. Prospect theory, Michael Lewis writes, explains “why people are less likely to sell their houses and their stock portfolios in falling markets; why, most sensationally, professional golfers become better putters when they’re trying to save par (avoid losing a stroke) than when they’re trying to make a birdie (and gain a stroke).”
via The Quiz Daniel Kahneman Wants You to Fail | Business | Vanity Fair.
FTS 2012 01 02
FTS in my definitions is Fuck That Shit or Fuck This Shit, the words are too common and near for the win that they probably are widely used,
The rant today is due to having two managers to report to.
Two managers with different management styles who seem to never talk to each other.
Two managers who need to be reminded that you have other deliverables.
This is a recipe for mediocrity. Having to do lots of stuff with almost the same deadlines.
Let it be said that I don’t actually hate my managers far from it. It’s the situation that we are all in that is the reason for this. Fuck This Shit.
One day when the FTS days get too often too much the FTS becomes FTS I Quit.
Happy New Year 1 day late
Happy New Year!!!!
rePost::Tebow Was Here? Superstar Still Unknown In Philippines City Of His Birth | ThePostGame
“Basketball is the biggest sport that we follow; we don’t know much about American sports apart from that,” Makati contractor Jerry Araneta said. “I only know of O.J. Simpson, for obvious reasons. Oh, and Brett Favre. There is a poster of him in my favorite bar. But not Tim Tebow, I don’t know him.”
That may change soon, especially if Tebow’s fame and form continue to surge. Two Manila newspapers are planning stories on the quarterback this week, and Filipino state television is sending a crew to the Broncos’ showdown against the New England Patriots on Sunday.
Tebow continues his family’s mission work, and his foundation has combined with renowned charity CURE International to build a state-of-the-art hospital in the troubled region of Davao that will provide reconstructive surgery for children suffering from deformities.
Funding for the $3.1 million project is nearly 80 percent complete, and it is expected that Tebow will be present at the groundbreaking ceremony in January.
Unless, of course, the weekly escape acts continue into the post-season.
via Tebow Was Here? Superstar Still Unknown In Philippines City Of His Birth | ThePostGame.
Online Dating: Sex, Love, and Loneliness : The New Yorker
A common observation, about both the Internet dating world and the world at large, is that there is an apparent surplus of available women, especially in their thirties and beyond, and a shortage of recommendable men. The explanation for this asymmetry, which isn’t exactly news, is that men can and usually do pursue younger women, and that often the men who are single are exactly the ones who prefer them. For women surveying a landscape of banished husbands or perpetual boys, the biological rationale offers little solace. Neither does the Internet.
via Online Dating: Sex, Love, and Loneliness : The New Yorker.
Dark Knight Rises trailer
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Kurt Andersen: From Fashion to Housewares, Are We in a Decades-Long Design Rut? | Style | Vanity Fair
We seem to have trapped ourselves in a vicious cycle—economic progress and innovation stagnated, except in information technology; which leads us to embrace the past and turn the present into a pleasantly eclectic for-profit museum; which deprives the cultures of innovation of the fuel they need to conjure genuinely new ideas and forms; which deters radical change, reinforcing the economic (and political) stagnation. I’ve been a big believer in historical pendulum swings—American sociopolitical cycles that tend to last, according to historians, about 30 years. So maybe we are coming to the end of this cultural era of the Same Old Same Old. As the baby-boomers who brought about this ice age finally shuffle off, maybe America and the rich world are on the verge of a cascade of the wildly new and insanely great. Or maybe, I worry some days, this is the way that Western civilization declines, not with a bang but with a long, nostalgic whimper.
via Kurt Andersen: From Fashion to Housewares, Are We in a Decades-Long Design Rut? | Style | Vanity Fair.
Christopher Hitchens, Consummate Writer, Brilliant Friend – NYTimes.com
When I arrived from the airport on my last visit, he saw sticking out of my luggage a small book. He held out his hand for it — Peter Ackroyd’s “London Under,” a subterranean history of the city. Then we began a 10-minute celebration of its author. We had never spoken of him before, and Christopher seemed to have read everything. Only then did we say hello. He wanted the Ackroyd, he said, because it was small and didn’t hurt his wrist to hold. But soon he was making penciled notes in its margins. By that evening he’d finished it. He could have written a review, but he was to turn in a long piece on Chesterton.
And so this was how it would go: talk about books and politics, then he dozed while I read or wrote, then more talk, then we both read. The intensive care unit room was crammed with flickering machines and sustaining tubes, but they seemed almost decorative. Books, journalism, the ideas behind both, conquered the sterile space, or warmed it, they raised it to the condition of a good university library. And they protected us from the bleak high-rise view through the plate glass windows, of that world, in Larkin’s lines, whose loves and chances “are beyond the stretch/Of any hand from here!”
via Christopher Hitchens, Consummate Writer, Brilliant Friend – NYTimes.com.
rePost::Five Manifestos for the Creative Life | Brain Pickings
We first featured the Holstee manifesto over a year ago, and our fondness for their sustainable social enterprise has only grown since then. Whether you’re raising a family or venture funds for your new business, rallying cries for creativity don’t get much stronger than this:
This is your life. Do what you love, and do it often. If you don’t like something, change it. If you don’t like your job, quit. If you don’t have enough time, stop watching TV. If you are looking for the love of your life, stop; they will be waiting for you when you start doing things you love.”
via Five Manifestos for the Creative Life | Brain Pickings.
rePost::Christopher Hitchens Takes on Nietzsche: Am I Really Stronger? | Culture | Vanity Fair
In the remainder of his life, however, Nietzsche seems to have caught an early dose of syphilis, very probably during his first-ever sexual encounter, which gave him crushing migraine headaches and attacks of blindness and metastasized into dementia and paralysis. This, while it did not kill him right away, certainly contributed to his death and cannot possibly, in the meanwhile, be said to have made him stronger. In the course of his mental decline, he became convinced that the most important possible cultural feat would be to prove that the plays of Shakespeare had been written by Bacon. This is an unfailing sign of advanced intellectual and mental prostration.
via Christopher Hitchens Takes on Nietzsche: Am I Really Stronger? | Culture | Vanity Fair.