Emphasis mine. I have to remember this on judging the performance of the next admin. If the price of oil hovers at 40 USD per barrel and our GDP growth is not anywhere near 7.6% then the next admin is probably failing.
If the price falls past $39 a barrel, we could see it go as low as $30 a barrel, said Walter Zimmerman, chief technical strategist for United-ICAP in Jersey City, New Jersey, who projected the 2014 drop.
“Where prices bottom will be based on an emotional decision,” Zimmerman said. “It won’t be based on the supply-demand fundamentals, so it’s guaranteed to be overdone to the downside.”
The biggest winner would be the Philippines, whose economic growth would accelerate to 7.6 percent on average over the next two years if oil fell to $40, while Russia would contract 2.5 percent over the same period, according to an Oxford Economics Ltd.’s December analysis of 45 national economies.
via How $50 Oil Changes Almost Everything – Bloomberg.