-rePost-Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed: Y2K, the Credit Crisis, and the Rosencrantz Fallacy

Scarlett Johansson sketch
Image by rymix via Flickr

I think one big thing that is different here is that in most of those systems the snowball effect is less than in the financial system. But I have to say that I feel for the sentiment and hope that the small individual actions of each company/individual/Government end up to be enough to fix things!

But then it didn’t happen. January 1st 2000 went by, and pretty much nothing happened. While some people then pronounced that the whole Y2K thing had been a fraud, the truth was much more interesting and important. It hadn’t been a fraud; there had been real and consequential risks in important and complex systems. If those problems hadn’t have been addressed, many of the consequences imagined by the apocalypticists might well have happened. We could, in the limit, have been facing real breakdowns in societal fabric.
So, why didn’t the worst happen? In part what happened is this: People acted. While they were late, slow, stupid, and error-prone, they did what people do when a big enough alarm bell is rung loudly and long enough: They tried to figure out what they could do in the time they had to reduce their risk, and they did those things. They didn’t think other people would get there, but they knew they would.
Paul Kedrosky’s Infectious Greed.

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rePost: THE UNRAVELING OF KANYE WEST: DETAILS Article on men.style.com

Kanye West in 2007.
Image via Wikipedia

I played guitar hero the first time last night, at a house/birthday party of a friend. What struck me was the intensity of the people playing guitar hero. Let’s just say that most things we have in modern society is distractions and we seem to be concentrating so much in these distractions that we seem to lose energy to do the hard stuff, or maybe we use these distractions to not face having to deal with the hard stuff, as for me, I’m not playing guitar hero any time soon, I’ve been slowly saving up for an electric organ and in 8 month’s I’d probably saved enough for both an instrument and the turntable i’ve been dying to own.  Hope I can create stuff!

Inspired by his preteen SuperSexual Mario Brothers project, West makes a pop-Freudian self-analysis. “People ask me a lot about my drive. I think it comes from, like, having a sexual addiction at a really young age,” he says. “Look at the drive that people have to get sex—to dress like this and get a haircut and be in the club in the freezing cold at 3 A.M., the places they go to pick up a girl. If you can focus the energy into something valuable, put that into work ethic . . . “
THE UNRAVELING OF KANYE WEST: DETAILS Article on men.style.com.

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rePost:Belief In A Loving God/ A Loving Life:Who wants to go to heaven? at Paulo Coelho’s Blog

Zürich (Switzerland) - The Brazilian writer Pa...
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For those who believe in God or even who just believes in life, I’ve come to the belief(too many belief in this sentence) God/the Universe is not conspiring against me at worst it does not care for me/us, thus I try to live life in a manner that if not optimistic at least neutral. I still don’t knwo/understand life but I feel that If I am to continue living here I believe in Love!

Who wants to go to heaven?
Published by Paulo Coelho on February 16, 2009 in Stories
A priest – who saw the devil in the pleasures of life – went to the town tavern and asked everyone there to attend church that evening. Everyone obeyed. With the church filled to the last pew, the priest roared out:
– Stop all this drinking! All those who want to go to heaven, raise their right hand!
The entire congregation raised their hand – everyone but Manoel, who was held by all to be a dignified man who fulfilled all his duties.
Surprised, the priest asked:
– And you, Manoel, don’t you want to go to heaven when you die?
– Of course I do. But I still haven’t experienced the life that God has given me, and you want to take it away from me already!
Welcome to Share with Friends – Free Texts for a Free Internet
Who wants to go to heaven? at Paulo Coelho’s Blog.

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Fears From The Periphery:Niall Ferguson – An imaginary retrospective of 2009

You hear it in the news, and people repeat it to either sound smart or at least informed. To me it is just noise. There is probably a correlation to the confidence of a people versus the performance of its economy, it may even well be causal, but Whenever I hear anyone sprouting something like “We are not that affected by the global financial crisis”, or even worse the people who sound so matter of factly “We are immune to this crisis” then points out the activity in malls etc, I don’t know what to think anymore. We aren’t like franklin richards (son of Reed and Sue Richards of the Fantastic Force) we cannot will reality. We nudge it, coerce and push maybe but that is what we do. willing it is just part of it, we create reality through will and action, none is good without the other. The way I talk betrays my need for accuracy when making sweeping statements or even statements, more so for things that are not too easily grasped, with little study or even extensive study. We must not speak to the crowds but always try to push the debate forward.

This asymmetric character of the global crisis – the fact that the shocks were even bigger on the periphery than at the epicentre – had its disadvantages for the US, to be sure. Any hope that America could depreciate its way out from under its external debt burden faded as 10-year yields and the dollar held firm. Nor did American manufacturers get a second wind from reviving exports, as they would have done had the dollar sagged. The Fed’s achievement was to keep inflation in positive territory – just. Those who had feared galloping inflation and the end of the dollar as a reserve currency were confounded.
Niall Ferguson – An imaginary retrospective of 2009.

Taking Control Of Your Own Health


Got the previous picture from mattew yglessias.
I’ve been battling weight problems all my life, I am not making excuses, Whatever I am before , now and what I will become is in my delusion to be because of the choices I make. As matt said I tend to focus myslef in the things that I can control, this is abias I must live with because there is no reason to worry myslef with the things I have no control over. I think what  I have to do is to reevaluate often if the things I previously thought to be beyond my control are now well within it!

Inspiring—University of Washington retires Brandon Roy's No. 3 jersey – NBA – SI.com

“One of two in 100 years of basketball (to get his number retired)? That’s amazing,” Roy said, wearing cuff links beneath his monogram at the ends of the open-collared, white dress shirt that complemented his dark suit. “Even more, the 30th Pac-10 player? It’s a great list to be on.”
An improbable one, too.
Roy failed to get qualifying college entrance scores out of Seattle’s Garfield High School in 2002. His scores improved so dramatically when he took the SAT a second time the disbelieving NCAA’s clearinghouse rejected them as invalid. So he took it again — and his scores were lost. Then they were found. The NCAA cleared him for eligibility. The UW did not, initially.
Months of what should have been his freshman year passed, darkly. The Huskies’ season began and Roy was a confused teenager, shut out of college and the arena in which he is now immortalized. He needed a purpose, a job.
So the man who torched the Phoenix Suns for 52 points earlier this season with the Trail Blazers scrubbed industrial spills out of the insides of shipping containers in the rugged, cold shipyards in downtown Seattle.
Talk about rags-to-riches. The payoff was three consecutive NCAA tournaments, Pac-10 royalty in his hometown and NBA stardom down Interstate 5.
“Yeah, the doubt definitely crept in my freshman year,” Roy said, chuckling. “I thought, ‘Man, I’ll never have that chance.”‘
University of Washington retires Brandon Roy’s No. 3 jersey – NBA – SI.com.

I Am A Producer!

I believe I am and I will do everything I can to be right1

While it’s true you’re likely a mixture of both types and will experience fluctuation in your ratio of production vs. consumption from one month to the next, unless your name is Robert Scoble you have to choose one or the other.
To recap:
* Consuming for the pure love of learning is absolutely ok.
* Producing purely because you have a fire that won’t die until you do is fine, too.
* But don’t kid yourself about who you are.
If you’ve been reading startup blogs for years and never started anything, it’s time to accept that you’re a consumer.
If you have 50 software product ideas and your hard drive is littered with folders containing 30 lines of code from each, you’re a consumer (or at least a producer who has trouble finishing things).
And if you figure out that you are a producer, stop daydreaming about the day you’ll make things happen. Start making it happen in the next 30 days, or forever hold your peace.
The Single Most Important Career Question You Can Ask Yourself | Software by Rob.

Cold Call

I Gave Myself 6 months to put things in order before trying the Startup route again, this time not as an employee but as founder.  The scars from the last startup haven’t healed completely but can’t sulk forever.
I know its a longshot but when I have finally done something/anything I think I’m gonna cold call/email Mark Cuban every little thing counts/matters for a startup and emailing him is not that much of a burden for me. I am expecting nothing , but hoping that I get a feedback, any kind be it the (f~ck you wasted 30 minutes of my life kind)!
I am quite excited just three and a half months to go!

from TechCrunch here:
How do people reach you?
Send me an email and in three paragraphs or less, tell me about your business. Dont say you need an NDA or want a call. Just tell me how youre going to make money and how I’m going to add value. Give me a URL if you have a website, I’ll figure it out. 5% of the people will hear back from me.
TC50 interview of Mark Cuban

rePost: Top Teachers Ineffective

This hit home because my sister was telling me of the recent moves to abolish the BS Education as a recognized course in the Philippines, meaning that people who want to become teachers of Preschool/Elementary/Highschool must have an Education degree and pass a National Certification Exam known as (LET – Licensure Exam for Teachers).

It seems that recent research has shown that people with degrees in the subjects they will teach are more effective teachers than Education Majors studying those subjects as minor subject in college.

In the Philippines , almost all colleges/universities (Excepting UP) have different classes for Education (insert subject here ) majors and (Subject majors). I was told that Classes for Education Math Majors were for easier than Math majors (except in UP where people take the same classes ).

Getting back to the excerpted blog post below, Are the researches cited by those wanting to abolish the Education degree in the Philippines even valid?? If Top Teachers are ineffective are teachers even effective??

I think the post was a little misleading because :

  • What if the reason some teachers do not get a license is not that they are not good, rather they perform well enough to not need a license to signify capability?
  • What if the lack of a license acts as a motivator or a threat against employment status that people work or try to educate students as well if not better than licensed colleagues.

I don’t know haven’t made up my mind yet.!

from the Overcoming Bias blog here , a personal must read blog for me.

Top Teachers Ineffective

Yesterday I reported that top med school docs are no healthier for patients.  Today I report that even at private schools, teachers who are fully certified do not help students perform any better on math and science tests:

Data from the National Education Longitudinal Survey of 1988 (NELS:88) were used to investigate the effect of teacher licensure status on private school students’ 12th grade math and science test scores. This data includes schooling and family background information on students that can be linked to employment information on teachers. We find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, private school students of fully certified 12th grade math and science teachers do not appear to outperform students of private school teachers who are not fully certified.

My urban econ text says:

Studies have consistently shown that graduate coursework (e.g., a Master’s degree) does not affect teacher productivity.

I expect patients are willing to pay more for top med school docs, and parents are willing to pay more for educated and certified teachers.  And I expect that this would continue even if patients and parents knew the above results.  I suspect most of the demand for teachers, doctors, and many other professionals comes from folks wanting to affiliate with certified-as-impressive people.  And merely making patients healthier or making students perform better doesn’t count much toward impressiveness, relative to academia-certified impressiveness.
But folks don’t like to admit this directly; they’d rather pretend they care more than they do about other outputs.  Which is why folks don’t want to hear about the above results.  The media will oblige them, and so they will continue in their preferred delusions.  Bet on it.

Added: James Hubbard points us to a related critique of MBA training.