rePost:: UK terror threat, defined

UK terror threat, defined
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By Peter Boockvar – January 22nd, 2010, 3:51PM
The DJ is reporting that the UK raised its terror threat level to ‘Severe’ from ‘Substantial.’ They define ‘Substantial’ as an ‘attack is a strong possibility’ whereas ‘Severe’ is defined as ‘an attack is highly likely.’
via The Big Picture » Blog Archive » UK terror threat, defined.

I get it but it seems arbitrarily imprecise. Severe has a probability near 50 but whose highest point is not above 50 percent. whilst substantial has a high point above 50. Why don’t they just use something like the doomsday clock??

rePost :: The sweetest usurious bastards

Still we are talking about regulating credit cards – and nobody much seems to mention Rent-A-Center despite the far more usurious nature of the business.
I went to visit this company determined to short the stock. I did not. The company looked like a money-machine even if it appeared to breach the intention of pretty well every consumer protection law I had ever seen. I could not see what-if-anything broke the model. Moreover the customers understood just how usurious the business was. It was not like credit cards where the hidden overdrawn and late fees – things the consumer was suckered into – were the driver of the model. This was honest usury.
But it was the nature of the people I met that most stuck in memory. This was a business where if Jesus was alive he would pull down the Temple over them. It was precisely the sort of business the bible rails against. It offended my decency. But the people were lovely. I met management and a store owner – and – frankly they seemed exactly the sort of people you would like to have Friday drinks with. I liked them.
This alarmed me of course – because I expected them to be scum. And maybe they are – but I couldn’t tell. They were the sweetest usurious bastards (notwithstanding allegations in consumer complaints about the company).
via Bronte Capital: The sweetest usurious bastards.

You know what struck me with all the networking scams.  They preyed on the people who can least afford it, and sadly used basic sales hacks that people less equipped to handle will fall for. Of course they do this with a big smile in their face, and one of the sweetest voice you’ll hear.

rePost::How America Lost the War on Drugs : Rolling Stone

frankly drugs scare me, it’s just that people on drugs cannot be reasoned with, they will probably kill you even if you do not have any plans on trying to fight back when being mugged, or the like. It’s like in poker, I actually don’t fear the rational players, it’s the irrational players who doesn’t have a lot of logic in their playing that is very hard to beat. This is because you get beaten by hands that you assume wouldn’t be possible because they would have folded already with such.
This is something concrete that can be asked to Presidential Aspirants. Do they even know of these almost 20 year recommendation? The Drug problem in the Philippines is worsening because poverty is worsening, producing a spiral of crime-poverty-addiction. We are a poor country and to not know what the most cost efficient way to combat the Drug Problem is a big question mark in any Presidential Candidates armor. We must be asking these questions.
PS: Legalize marijuana now!!!!
PSS: Notice that in a lot of our problems the Pareto Principle is at work 80-20 90-10;. For me at least someone worthy of leading our beautiful and somewhat seemingly damned country should know the those places where we could put the Pareto Principle to work.

“If you had asked me at the outset,” Everingham says, “my guess would have been that the best use of taxpayer money was in the source countries in South America” — that it would be possible to stop cocaine before it reached the U.S. But what the study found surprised her. Overseas military efforts were the least effective way to decrease drug use, and imprisoning addicts was prohibitively expensive. The only cost-effective way to put a dent in the market, it turned out, was drug treatment. “It’s not a magic bullet,” says Reuter, the RAND scholar who helped supervise the study, “but it works.” The study ultimately ushered RAND, this vaguely creepy Cold War relic, into a position as the permanent, pragmatic left wing of American drug policy, the most consistent force for innovating and reinventing our national conception of the War on Drugs.
When Everingham’s team looked more closely at drug treatment, they found that thirteen percent of hardcore cocaine users who receive help substantially reduced their use or kicked the habit completely. They also found that a larger and larger portion of illegal drugs in the U.S. were being used by a comparatively small group of hardcore addicts. There was, the study concluded, a fundamental imbalance: The crack epidemic was basically a domestic problem, but we had been fighting it more aggressively overseas. “What we began to realize,” says Jonathan Caulkins, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University who studied drug policy for RAND, “was that even if you only get a percentage of this small group of heavy drug users to abstain forever, it’s still a really great deal.”
Thirteen years later, the study remains the gold standard on drug policy. “It’s still the consensus recommendation supplied by the scholarship,” says Reuter. “Yet as well as it’s stood up, it’s never really been tried.”
To Brown, RAND’s conclusions seemed exactly right. “I saw how little we were doing to help addicts, and I thought, ‘This is crazy,'” he recalls. “‘This is how we should be breaking the cycle of addiction and crime, and we’re just doing nothing.'”
The federal budget that Brown’s office submitted in 1994 remains a kind of fetish object for certain liberals in the field, the moment when their own ideas came close to making it into law. The budget sought to cut overseas interdiction, beef up community policing, funnel low-level drug criminals into treatment programs instead of prison, and devote $355 million to treating hardcore addicts, the drug users responsible for much of the illegal-drug market and most of the crime associated with it. White House political handlers, wary of appearing soft on crime, were skeptical of even this limited commitment, but Brown persuaded the president to offer his support, and the plan stayed.
via How America Lost the War on Drugs : Rolling Stone.

rePost:Tragedy Of The War On Drugs:How America Lost the War on Drugs : Rolling Stone

Though many on the left suspected that things had gone seriously awry, drug policy under Reagan and Bush was largely conducted in a fog of ignorance. The kinds of long-term studies that policy-makers needed — those that would show what measures would actually reduce drug use and dampen its consequences — did not yet exist. When it came to research, there was “absolutely nothing” that examined “how each program was or wasn’t working,” says Peter Reuter, a drug scholar who founded the Drug Policy Research Center at the RAND Corp.
But after Escobar was killed in 1993 — and after U.S. drug agents began systematically busting up the Colombian cartels — doubt was replaced with hard data. Thanks to new research, U.S. policy-makers knew with increasing certainty what would work and what wouldn’t. The tragedy of the War on Drugs is that this knowledge hasn’t been heeded. We continue to treat marijuana as a major threat to public health, even though we know it isn’t. We continue to lock up generations of teenage drug dealers, even though we know imprisonment does little to reduce the amount of drugs sold on the street. And we continue to spend billions to fight drugs abroad, even though we know that military efforts are an ineffective way to cut the supply of narcotics in America or raise the price.
All told, the United States has spent an estimated $500 billion to fight drugs — with very little to show for it. Cocaine is now as cheap as it was when Escobar died and more heavily used. Methamphetamine, barely a presence in 1993, is now used by 1.5 million Americans and may be more addictive than crack. We have nearly 500,000 people behind bars for drug crimes — a twelvefold increase since 1980 — with no discernible effect on the drug traffic. Virtually the only success the government can claim is the decline in the number of Americans who smoke marijuana — and even on that count, it is not clear that federal prevention programs are responsible. In the course of fighting this war, we have allowed our military to become pawns in a civil war in Colombia and our drug agents to be used by the cartels for their own ends. Those we are paying to wage the drug war have been accused of human-rights abuses in Peru, Bolivia and Colombia. In Mexico, we are now repeating many of the same mistakes we have made in the Andes.
via How America Lost the War on Drugs : Rolling Stone.

rePost::Children Take the Stage in Same-Sex Marriage Push – NYTimes.com

LAST month, advocates and opponents of same-sex marriage packed the New Jersey State House in Trenton, supporters in blue, opponents in red. Near the end of the day, Kasey Nicholson-McFadden took the microphone. “It doesn’t bother me to tell kids my parents are gay,” he said in a clear voice. “It does bother me to say they aren’t married. It makes me feel that our family is less than their family.”
via Children Take the Stage in Same-Sex Marriage Push – NYTimes.com.

In a way that is what same-sex marriage is about. Acknowledging that people have the right to choose their partners. That people are equal under the law. Of course this doesn’t remove the right of any religious organization to expel/excommunicate them, but what we are talking about is legal, and I believe this prohibition is archaic and should be revised.

rePost::Ban them – INQUIRER.net, Philippine News for Filipinos

Got this from vince.  I believe that a gun less society or at least a society where guns are locked up at the police station or the police are at constant alert and anybody else with a gun outside of designated areas are automatically criminal can be enforced. Imagine how cool that would be, people still medieval enough to have blood feuds have to fight with swords and other like weapons.

Nandy Pacheco was the first to have the eyes to see the one thing that is there but should not be there. At least he was the first to try to do something about it with his dream of a Gunless Society. I don’t know if that dream is entirely realizable, but I know that we can, and should, stop the sheer flood of arms tumbling like “Ondoy” into these shores. The only thing worse than a country not being able to feed its population is a country not being able to feed its population while being able to arm it.
The notion that guns do not kill, people do, is idiotic. If Ivler had only his fists with him when he met Ebarle, Ebarle would still be alive. The most sober citizen is prone to road rage, among many other rages he is prone to in this country, and far better that he unburdens himself with curses than with bullets. Guns addle the brain worse than drugs. With drugs you can only harm yourself, not others. Might as well say shabu doesn’t kill, people do. Power does corrupt and absolute power absolutely, and nowhere does power reside more absolutely than in the hand with the gun. A proliferation of guns, with its attendant culture, swagger and fetish, warps a society as surely as the proliferation of cancer cells does a body. We need books, not guns.
Buy the book, ban the gun.
via Ban them – INQUIRER.net, Philippine News for Filipinos.

rePost::He Wasn’t The One We’ve Been Waiting For – Paul Krugman Blog – NYTimes.com

He Wasn’t The One We’ve Been Waiting For
Health care reform — which is crucial for millions of Americans — hangs in the balance. Progressives are desperately in need of leadership; more specifically, House Democrats need to be told to pass the Senate bill, which isn’t what they wanted but is vastly better than nothing. And what we get from the great progressive hope, the man who was offering hope and change, is this:
I would advise that we try to move quickly to coalesce around those elements of the package that people agree on. We know that we need insurance reform, that the health insurance companies are taking advantage of people. We know that we have to have some form of cost containment because if we don’t, then our budgets are going to blow up and we know that small businesses are going to need help so that they can provide health insurance to their families. Those are the core, some of the core elements of, to this bill. Now I think there’s some things in there that people don’t like and legitimately don’t like.
In short, “Run away, run away”!
Maybe House Democrats can pull this out, even with a gaping hole in White House leadership. Barney Frank seems to have thought better of his initial defeatism. But I have to say, I’m pretty close to giving up on Mr. Obama, who seems determined to confirm every doubt I and others ever had about whether he was ready to fight for what his supporters believed in.
via He Wasn’t The One We’ve Been Waiting For – Paul Krugman Blog – NYTimes.com.

rePost::The RV Loophole

I Love Traveling, but I Hate Flying
I’ve always hated flying, but since 9/11 the security theater in the US has become absurd. Every time I fly there are new regulations, new hassles, new reasons and means for dehumanizing passengers and treating them like cattle, and new excuses for airlines to delay flights (maybe I just have really bad luck, but I haven’t had a flight without delays, usually hours long, in nearly three years). I don’t feel safer because of it, I just feel a constant mild discomfort at how cowardly I and my fellow Americans are that we need and quietly accept such outrageous procedures in order to feel like our government is protecting us. I ought to be downright angry at how poorly I’m treated at airports, but I usually just feel tired and defeated. Since I don’t like feeling tired and defeated, I’ve avoided flying for the past several years as much as possible, mostly limiting my travel to northern California destinations.
I also like to bring my dog when I travel. She loves travelling, as well, and is a lot of fun to have at the beach, hiking, etc. She’s usually sociable (though she doesn’t like strangers touching her), particularly with other dog owners, so she tends to lead to more conversations and me meeting more new people, which is probably a good thing.
via The RV Loophole.

The thing that makes flying problematic is not the flying per se its the airports and airport regulations.

rePost::Believing You Can Get Smarter Makes You Smarter

Back in college they instituted a reform in the basic undergraduate curricula called RGEP. This allowed students to choose what general educations subjects to take with certain restrictions. This was met with celebration by a few friends from CAL(College of Arts and Letter), they were celebrating because for them this meant that they can fully skip taking even one math course, through my mildly probing questions (some would say interrogation) I was able to find out that they believed themselves NOT GOOD in math,  they seem to believe that they won’t get good in math. This saddened me.  (although one was dreaming of graduating with honors and didn’t want to risk a mediocre grade in math subjects). This afflicts most of us, we do a few things well and when faced with the initial problems when trying to get better at something we stop. I say push through, forge your skill from this frustration and anxiety.

Practical Application
Blackwell, Dweck, and Trzesniewski (2002) recently replicated and applied this research with seventh-grade students in New York City. During the first eight weeks of the spring term, these students learned about the malleability of intelligence by reading and discussing a science-based article that described how intelligence develops. A control group of seventh-grade students did not learn about intelligence’s changeability, and instead learned about memory and mnemonic strategies. As compared to the control group, students who learned about intelligence's malleability had higher academic motivation, better academic behavior, and better grades in mathematics. Indeed, students who were members of vulnerable groups (e.g., those who previously thought that intelligence cannot change, those who had low prior mathematics achievement, and female students) had higher mathematics grades following the intelligence-is-malleable intervention, while the grades of similar students in the control group declined. In fact, girls who received the intervention matched and even slightly exceeded the boys in math grades, whereas girls in the control group performed well below the boys.
These findings are especially important because the actual instruction time for the intervention totaled just three hours. Therefore, this is a very cost-effective method for improving students’ academic motivation and achievement.
via Believing You Can Get Smarter Makes You Smarter.

rePost::13*. Daybreakers: the Malthusiastic vampires | JessicarulestheUniverse

How do you know you and your friends are geeky? When after watching a movie you debate what happens in the world after the movie, specifically how the population would be affected sans in malthusian terms. I enjoyed this film because its a film that I believed started with a concept and not the stars. Although better acting and a more developed story (I don’t remember but I believe the film was little over 1hour 40 mins, they had more time if they really wanted to). It’s also commendable that they didn’t go the B-movie route of a little more nudity than was really warranted by the story (half-lie, the movie lover in me commends, the man does not, you had isabel lucas and you didn’t even try? come on…). Another weak point of the film is the relationship between sam oniel and her daughter. (spoiler alert)You’d save your daughter by turning her to a vamp, but you didn’t think about force feeding her he blood rations? All in all I went with little expectations and was thus delightfully surprised with what I saw.

What we have here is a high-concept film that brings up existential questions, Malthusian economics, and parasite biology (For a parasite to be successful, it must not only refrain from killing off its host but also ensure that the host thrives. See the toxo that lives in cats. Compared to toxo the vampire organism is greedy and stupid). However the filmmakers’ skills are strictly B-grade: cheap shock tactics from the Salem’s Lot school, blood and gore splattered across the screen, and ham acting from Neill and Willem Dafoe as the human rebel leader. Ethan at least takes the movie seriously (We still love him, even if one shot caused Noel and I to gasp, “Malaki na ang balakang ni Ethan!”)
So Daybreakers is an entertaining mix of the clever and the cheesy; we’ll call it Camembert. My rating: If you can spot existentialism, Malthusian economics, and parasite biology in a B-movie, String! (The best way to enjoy the movies is to entertain yourself.) If you like fangs, blood, gore, Kibble. If you expect a prestige project, Litterbox.
via 13*. Daybreakers: the Malthusiastic vampires | JessicarulestheUniverse.