personal AnGoL – Page 95

March 5, 2009

rePost : Personal Yearning : The Atlantic Online | March 2009 | How the Crash Will Reshape America | Richard Florida

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The University of Chicago economist and Nobel laureate Robert Lucas declared that the spillovers in knowledge that result from talent-clustering are the main cause of economic growth. Well-educated professionals and creative workers who live together in dense ecosystems, interacting directly, generate ideas and turn them into products and services faster than talented people in other places can. There is no evidence that globalization or the Internet has changed that. Indeed, as globalization has increased the financial return on innovation by widening the consumer market, the pull of innovative places, already dense with highly talented workers, has only grown stronger, creating a snowball effect. Talent-rich ecosystems are not easy to replicate, and to realize their full economic value, talented and ambitious people increasingly need to live within them.
The Atlantic Online | March 2009 | How the Crash Will Reshape America | Richard Florida.

March 5, 2009

rePost:Closed and Skeptical Minds : Musicians, drunks, and Oliver Cromwell — The Endeavour

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I forgot from what blog I got the advice but I remember distinctly an advice I got that said “be wary with people who say impossible” or something to that effect. I realize now after reading this post from chuck’s shared items what that really meant.
People who love or are in a habit of saying impossible is more probably of the closed/skeptical mind type, there is nothing wrong with being skeptical but there is for me something wrong with being close minded. When you are close minded you are living a life ruled by bias that you may or may no longer know how you came about having. When you live like this for a long time you end up with outdated/no longer true beliefs/ideas.
Why? This is because the world changes so fast and if you are not aware of a lot of the reason(like the previous post a lot of the evidence that influence our beliefs are somewhat invisible to us) you think/act a certain way you maybe doing something that is going against what you originally intended to do or achieve.
The take away in my view is three things:
-Try to journal what is influencing your thoughts.
-Constantly reexamine beliefs to understand if these beliefs/actions/habits are already outdated and should be stopped.
-Finally creating your own personal framework to make this as normal as breathing!

Dennis Lindley coined the term “Cromwell’s rule” for the advice that nothing should have zero prior probability unless it is logically impossible. The name comes from a statement by Oliver Cromwell addressed to the Church of Scotland:

I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken.

In probabilistic terms, “think it possible that you may be mistaken” corresponds to “don’t give anything zero prior probability.” If an event has zero prior probability, it will have zero posterior probability, no matter how much evidence is collected. If an event has tiny but non-zero prior probability, enough evidence can eventually increase the posterior probability to a large value.
The difference between a small positive prior probability and a zero prior probability is the difference between a skeptical mind and a closed mind.
Musicians, drunks, and Oliver Cromwell — The Endeavour.

March 5, 2009

Learned Today: Disagreement : Overcoming Bias: Beware Ideal Screen Theories

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I honestly was blind sided by this. I find it tedious to explain myself to other people. I find it hard to understand why people don’t understand what I say. This is enlightening to me. The problem is with me, and not the person I am conversing with. I am aware of only a small fraction of the relevant evidence and analysis that influence my belief!

Disagreement – When someone disagrees with you, you should wonder what they know that you do not. They might explain their reasons for their differing belief, i.e., their evidence and analysis, and you might hear and ponder those reasons and yet find that you still disagree. In this case you might feel that the fact that they disagree no longer informs you on this topic; the reasons for their belief screen their belief from informing your belief. And yes, if they could give you all their reasons, that would be enough. But except in a few extremely formal contexts, this is not even remotely close to being true. We are usually only aware of a small fraction of the relevant evidence and analysis that influences our beliefs. Disagreement is problematic, even after you’ve exchanged reasons.
Overcoming Bias: Beware Ideal Screen Theories.

March 3, 2009

-No To Right Of Reply Bill-GMANews.TV – Media groups vow stiff defense against RORB – Nation – Official Website of GMA News and Public Affairs – Latest Philippine News – BETA

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The right of reply bil would like to ensure that the party referred to by a media report has a law defined right to air his side. Its all fine and good in theory but let’s analyze this in its proper context and we would realize that like libel it is another tool that powerful people use to suppress the truth and/or bullying by the media. Ordinary people like me do not have the resources to hire lawyers to try to sue people for libel or if this becomes law try to force media organizations to air my side. Generalizing this, although I have been extremely critical of the Philippine media, the toolset of powerful people in the Philippines would be the only one that is helped by this bill.

Media groups vow stiff defense against RORB
03/04/2009 | 09:02 AM
MANILA, Philippines – After failing to come to terms with lawmakers, media groups vowed Wednesday to stage a “man-to-man” defense against the passage of the Right of Reply Bill in Congress.
National Press Club president Benny Antiporda said they will not allow the passage of the RORB, which he likened to a “beautiful woman with AIDS.”
GMANews.TV – Media groups vow stiff defense against RORB – Nation – Official Website of GMA News and Public Affairs – Latest Philippine News – BETA.

March 3, 2009

Stumbling and Mumbling: The power of stereotypes

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This is sad to read. In the Philippines people are labeled early on because of close family ties, where 2nd or 3rd degree relatives see each other at least once a year. One thing I observe in these awkward situation is the way people give young kids labels that tend to be based on superficial reasons that then I believe sometimes become self fulfilling.

The power of stereotypes
Reputations can be self-fulfilling prophecies ; if you give a man a bad name, he‘ll live down to it. A new paper (pdf) by Thomas Dee shows this.
He did an experiment at Swarthmore College, asking a group of students to take a GRE test. Before the test, some students were asked about their sporting activities, and whether these conflicted with their academic work, whilst others were not asked.
And Mr Dee found that the athletes who were asked these questions performed significantly worse than the athletes who weren’t.
This suggests that when people are primed to be aware of a stereotype – “jocks are dumb” – they are more likely to behave in accordance with it.
Stumbling and Mumbling: The power of stereotypes.

March 3, 2009

-rePost-Book/Film Guessing Games-Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Amazon's Kindle and the Recovery of Readerly Naivete; or, Were-Bats–the Big Bug Scourge of the Skies!

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When I was in high school and for most parts of college I kept my watch handy at all times. The MTRCB approval was needed for any film shown commercially and it listed the total run time of the film. The combination of my watch/(and for two years a stopwatch) and the knowledge of the running time of the film has saved me from being naive about a film, if their were any surprise twist left etc. The bad thing about this is that I began to be less emotionally involved with the film I was watching; When I was bringing stopwatches/watches to theaters I was always checking it to see how the pace was going, the action to chatter ratio. The exposition versus the confrontation ratio and other minutae that was although nice to discuss with other film lovers was mainly an exercise in film intellectual stimulation. When I discovered Roger Egbert’s online reviews I was mainly entraced by his love for film, it seemed he had different levels of looking at films. As a film critic, as a film lover, as a lover of stories , and a lover of emotions. I began to see that in trying to one-up other people’s/stranger’s/friend’s observation skills and views I lost that connection to that part of me that just wanted to be escapist and enjoyed a film, whether the lighting/camera work is not as good as it could have been or how smart a film is. I got this back by only being conscious of the time whenever I watch a movie for the second time. I haven’t used a Kindle and I suspect that as long as we (Philippine Consumers) are forced to jump through so many hoops to get a kindle I won’t be using one anytime soon, but I think that it would really improve my naivete !

In a normal book, an author cannot have the antagonist fall with an ensorcelled death-sword in its belly with one-third of the pages left to go and expect the reader to be surprised at what comes next. The thickness of the pages beneath one’s right hand scream: “THAT’S NOT THE ANTAGONIST, SCHMUCK!!!”
Reading it on the Kindle–the sudden appearance of the were-bats has an extra punch that it cannot have in the hard copy…
Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Amazon’s Kindle and the Recovery of Readerly Naivete; or, Were-Bats–the Big Bug Scourge of the Skies!.

March 3, 2009

rePost: Excellent Ranty Advice from Paul Wilmott:Paul Wilmott's Blog: Copulas and Cults

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Can’t say I blame him. People generally hate being different in a real way. The way I observe things, it seems most people just want to stand-out in the center of attention kind of way and not in the different trailblazing kind of way that I admire!
What you think of as just you job consumes probably from 2-10 hours of a 24 hour day. If you add in all the stuff you do because of work like commuting/preparing reports outside office hours/even shopping for office clothes/stuff etc . You can’t deny that what you call as just your job consists of the majority of your usable waking hours.
We need to take charge of our lives and have pride in what we do, and as human beings we have the capacity to think and analyze complex stuff. Why are we not doing exactly that?
As for the picture, for somer strange reason Zemanta thinks it’s relevant!

But that’s only part of the problem. Far more serious, because it extends to all of finance not just to a single model, is the poor education that people get in university financial engineering programs and also the blind-following-the-blind behaviour that is so common throughout the industry.
The copula model is not robust to changes in model assumptions. Black-Scholes is. Did you know that? Or maybe I’m wrong. Would you like to know the truth?
Yes, I could tell you. I could spoonfeed you. You’ve got used to being spoonfed, haven’t you? But you’re passing the buck there, putting an awful lot of responsibility on my shoulders. I can cope, as I’m sure David Li can cope. But you’re a big boy/girl now, you should be able to think for yourself. Isn’t that part of your job description?
It’s getting quite tedious me telling people to get off their backsides and test the models for themselves. Don’t believe anything I say, don’t believe anything Nassim, also quoted in the Salmon article, says. Question everything. Switch your brains back on.
Paul Wilmott’s Blog: Copulas and Cults.

March 3, 2009

Can't We All Just Get Along–Where is the love? — Crooked Timber

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A part of me was reluctant to post this (I found this January 9), But then I realized nobody reads this blog and what the hell! Great read, in the same vein as the previous post about this same issue.

I think if the revolutionary Jesus of the New Testament ever thought his ‘love the sinner, hate the sin’ message would be perverted and abused in this way, he’d have given us a few reminders like ‘judge not lest ye be judged’ or reminded his followers of the special power of religious hierarchy to corrupt. Oh, hang on, he did already!
I’ve sat with the Rick Warren inauguration thing for days, hoping to feel less angry and betrayed, hoping to see a chink of light in the reasoning behind it – anything beyond the tortuous over-thinking and callous calculation it betrays. I give up. Why couldn’t Obama give the people who voted for him one perfect day of happiness? God knows things are gloomy enough besides. And God knows too many people have spent the last 8 years excluded from the party. We live in a fully imperfect world the other 364 days, and reason says Obama can only disappoint us in the future, no matter how hard he tries. So why not share this one beautiful day of unadulterated happiness?
Here’s what it comes down to. The religious fundamentalists simply don’t want other people to be happy. The only joy they can conceive of is that which they allow. There’s no rendering unto Caesar what is Caesar’s for them. The law of their angry God is inadequate by itself, and needs to be enforced by the laws of men and the power of the state. Their joy is won only in a zero sum game. Sharing it destroys it. Why else do they fight so hard to exclude gay people from the ‘sanctity’ of marriage?
But we’re not two year-olds. We are grown-ups who know that sharing our precious toys doesn’t ruin them forever. If marriage is so great – and I think it is – then why hoard it? Why keep the light under a bushel? There is something so selfish and grasping about the religious right’s vendetta against gay marriage. It’s unworthy of anyone who professes to follow Christ.
I keep on keeping on in the Catholic Church, mostly because it’s what I was brought up in and where I most feel the pain and joy of just being alive. I’ve even been lucky enough to find a home from home in a Catholic community that not just welcomes but celebrates every person in it. But days like today force me to ask myself if it’s even the right thing to continue to associate myself with an institution whose leadership behaves so shamefully. If I believe Barack Obama should dissociate himself from Rick Warren’s Prop 8 hatefulness, what right do I have to keep going to a church I love but that doesn’t fully love all its members?
I can’t argue myself into it, or perhaps even justify politically and intellectually why I should go on enjoying my community of faith. But I do feel it comes down to the joy. The happiness for and amongst others I experience there, and the practical hope that I can keep on doing my bit (whenever I truly figure out what that is). Shutting down or shutting off that profound source of joy would make me feel the bad guys have won. The religious right don’t have a monopoly on happiness, and we shouldn’t let them think they can.
Where is the love? — Crooked Timber.

I’ve been trying to avoid this issue but reading the above quoted passage I’d like to write donw my views. Whenever I like to censor myself, or hide within my personal beliefs I sometimes have to read the xkcd comic about dreams and silently whisper to myslef FucK ThaT ShiT!

March 3, 2009

Had To Share:Touching Story:The old lady in Copacabana at Paulo Coelho’s Blog

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I posted this a week ago but I wanted to say a little something about this now. I don’t know , can’t we say most of people probably including me does a lot of things not to be alone? It is sad but it is the truth. I probably am bipolar and whenever I am at one extreme I seem to feel the need to connect with people while at the other extreme I have that overwhelming need to be left alone to my own thoughts! The problem is most often when you want to be left alone, those are the exact times people can’t seem to leave you alone, and vise-versa. That’s why sometimes I just leave my phone at my room and don’t check emails for a couple of days. Or why I suddenly message people in facebook or comment on random people’s blogs. It sates the need for aloness/connectedness without real friction.

The old lady in Copacabana
Published by Paulo Coelho on February 20, 2009 in Stories Paulo Coelho
She was standing on the sidewalk of Atlântica Avenue with a guitar and a hand-written sign that said: “Let’s sing together.”
She began to play alone. Then a drunk arrived, then another old lady and they began to sing along with her. In a short time a small crowd was singing together and another small crowd played the audience, clapping hands at the end of each number.
“Why do you do this?” I asked between songs.
“Not to be alone,” she said. “My life is very lonely, just like almost all old folk.”
I wish they all could solve their problems in this way.
The old lady in Copacabana at Paulo Coelho’s Blog.

March 3, 2009

Right To Live-Wedding Ring Freakonomics

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We must revise our views and accept they way people want to live. This is especially true for cases that does not entail an adverse effect against any thing but our sensibilities. We must not deny people the right to find their happiness if it does not directly affect our happiness in any meaningful way. Part of me hated making Sean Penn win the Best Actor award at the 81’st Academy Awards for political reasons (Mickey Rourke was really that good!), and I feared that it may be the reason the Slumdog Would lose the Best Picture awards, TGFT. But prop * was California’s black eye and till they find a way to redeem themselves they would always feel shamed with what they weren’t able to prevent!

My Wedding Ring
By Ian Ayres
With great joy, I decided to put my wedding ring back on my finger this past weekend.
I had stopped wearing my ring because I was slightly embarrassed to live in a state where people like my sister couldn’t marry the people they love.
But I have no reason now to be embarrassed on this score, because on Friday the Connecticut Supreme Court struck down the statutory exclusion. You can read Justice Palmer’s opinion here. (Disclosure: An amicus brief was filed in the case on behalf of me and other Connecticut law professors, and my spouse, Jennifer Gerarda Brown, was the co-author of another amicus brief.)
My Wedding Ring – Freakonomics – Opinion – New York Times Blog.