ROTD::Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment

Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Iraq and the Philippines
Most aid spending by governments seeking to rebuild social and political order is based on an opportunity-cost theory of distracting potential recruits. The logic is that gainfully employed young men are less likely to participate in political violence, implying a positive correlation between unemployment and violence in places with active insurgencies. We test that prediction on insurgencies in Iraq and the Philippines, using survey data on unemployment and two newly- available measures of insurgency: (1) attacks against government and allied forces; and (2) violence that kills civilians. Contrary to the opportunity-cost theory, we find a robust negative correlation between unemployment and attacks against government and allied forces and no significant relationship between unemployment and the rate of insurgent attacks that kill civilians. [Emphasis mine]
via Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment.

This is discouraging. Please remember that GMA is still an economist and in some accounts a sharp person. Does this mean that keeping people in poverty a viable strategy in minimizing rebellion? It seems to be what the warlords and government are actually doing.

Learned::Ezra Klein – The behavioral economics of Thanksgiving

“Move to chopsticks!” he exclaimed, making bites smaller and harder to take. If the chopsticks are a bit extreme, smaller plates and utensils might work the same way. Study after study shows that people eat more when they have more in front of them. It’s one of our predictable irrationalities: We judge portions by how much is left rather than how full we feel. Smaller portions lead us to eat less, even if we can refill the plate.
via Ezra Klein – The behavioral economics of Thanksgiving.

I bought a box containing 40 pcs of california maki about two months ago. I couldn’t get over the fact that after only 15 pieces I was so full. People who have seen me eat know that I can eat alot. It really surprised me. I knew the reason must be psychological/cognitive.  Maybe I can use this while I’m dieting!
FYI: I gained alot of pounds because of my Mindanao vacation. I still can’t get over how many eat all you can’s Cagayan De Oro has, or how any where you look most barbecue or grill has unlimited rice in Davao. Must exercise, Must Diet!

Learned::Biased News Has Delayed Impact | Miller-McCune Online Magazine

This is big. What this means we really have to guard against alot of the things we hear from the media, we must always try to correct media people when they report the things incorrectly. This probably means almost nobody is immune! Better Press Corp Please!

Does Biased News Have a Time Bomb Effect?
A European study shows that, over time, even the most sophisticated readers can be manipulated.
By: Melinda Burns | November 09, 2009 | 05:00 AM (PST) |
Even the most hardened Europeans may succumb to media manipulation and change their political views if they are bombarded long enough with biased news.
There's nobody more cynical about the media than your average European.
Only 12 percent of Europeans claim to trust the media, compared to 15 percent of North Americans, 29 percent of Pacific Asians and 48 percent of Africans, the BBC has found.
Yet new research out of the London School of Economics and Political Science suggests that even the most hardened Europeans may succumb to media manipulation and change their political views if they are bombarded long enough with biased news.
via Politics Articles | Biased News Has Delayed Impact | Miller-McCune Online Magazine.

rePost::In Defense of a Good Night's Sleep

This has been the 3rd week of having between 3 and 4 hours of sleep a day.
Yikes this is scary.

In Defense of a Good Night's Sleep
Disrupt your sleep, disrupt your body and brain.
It's so tempting to cut back on sleep when you can't figure out how to make it all fit. Many of us have an irregular sleep cycle, staying up and sleeping in some days, and trying to rise before the first respectable glimmer of dawn the next day.
But a new study presented at the 2009 meeting of the Society for Neuroscience shows how disrupting your sleep cycle can interfere with your health and cognitive function. (1) Researchers from Rockefeller University disrupted the circadian rhythms of mice by exposing them to 10 hours of light followed by 10 hours of darkness. After two months of this, the mice were in need of more than a little nap. They had difficulty learning. They were more impulsive. And they got fat, thanks in part to changes in appetite hormones and metabolism.
via In Defense of a Good Night’s Sleep | Psychology Today.

rePost::Why Do People Bother Voting? | PsyBlog

This doesn’t make much sense at first sight but the mind works in mysterious ways. People know there are others who think the same way they do and if people like them don’t vote then their candidate is unlikely to win. Therefore they need to vote themselves.
It sounds like a twisted kind of logic but Quattrone & Tversky found some evidence for it in a study following on from the one they did about self-deception (see the connection?!). They found that in a simulated voting situation participants behaved as though they believed that their own vote actually caused other people to vote in the same way they did.
In other words, people seem to behave as though their own behaviour is diagnostic of other people who think the same way.
This is another neat demonstration of our powers of self-deception and one reason self-deception can work to society’s advantage. Democracies generally view voting as a good thing (with some notable exceptions!) and try to encourage it, yet people rationally understand that their individual vote makes practically no difference. But when we see our vote as signalling how others will behave, it becomes much more important.
via Why Do People Bother Voting? | PsyBlog.

Learned Today::Getting a rise out of getting a rise

Wow this is enlightening. Some people really do get of at pissing other people off. Lesson learned , if someone you are irritated with actually gets of at pissing people off,  well its time to be that person nobody can seem to piss off!

Participants who had higher testosterone levels responded better to angry faces than to neutral ones, even though the faces were on screen too briefly to identify. Michelle Wirth, who led the study, explained how this can possibly be correlated to other testing methods:
“Better learning of a task associated with anger faces indicates that the anger faces were rewarding, as in a rat that learns to press a lever in order to receive a tasty treat. In that sense, anger faces seemed to be rewarding for high-testosterone people, but aversive for low-testosterone people.”
So the next time it seems like that person is trying to piss you off, reward them with a knuckle sandwich.
via Getting a rise out of getting a rise.

rePost::"There must be a reason" : Respectful Insolence

In other words, the stronger the emotion behind the belief, the more likely a person is to fall into the trap of using cognitive errors to justify that belief. The key phrase is in the title of the article and in the conclusion, and that phrase is “there must be a reason.” Think about it and how often we hear that sort of a statement in the context of topics relevant to SBM. For example, “there must be a reason” that:
via “There must be a reason” : Respectful Insolence.

Learned Today::The Answer Sheet – Willingham: Student "Learning Styles" Theory Is Bunk

I use to believe in the Learning Styles theory, but based on my sample of One (me), You learn when you need to and/or you want to , when these are both true you really learn, when only one is true you tend to have incomplete learning on a subject matter.

This is not to say that all kids are the same, or that all kids should be taught the same way. But it does help us to understand what the source of these differences might be.
Consider this analogy. Watch kids on a museum field trip and you’ll notice that they stop to look at different paintings: some like cubism, some like impressionism, some like the Old Masters, and so on.
You would not conclude that these kids have different visual systems. You’d figure that these differences were due to the children’s backgrounds, their personalities, tastes, and so on.
The same seems to be true of learning.
Some lessons click with one child and not with another, but not because of an enduring bias or predisposition in the way the child learns. The lesson clicks or doesn’t because of the knowledge the child brought to the lesson, his interests, or other factors.
When you think about it, the theory of learning styles doesn’t really celebrate the differences among children: On the contrary, the point is to categorize kids.
via The Answer Sheet – Willingham: Student “Learning Styles” Theory Is Bunk.

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Learned Today::Dual Pivot Quick Sort

Cool Code!

Mathematical investigations ————————— It is proved that for the Dual-Pivot Quicksort the average number of comparisons is 2*n*ln(n), the average number of swaps is 0.8*n*ln(n), whereas classical Quicksort algorithm has 2*n*ln(n) and 1*n*ln(n) respectively. Full mathematical proof see in attached proof.txt and proof_add.txt files. Theoretical results are also confirmed by experimental counting of the operations.
via gmane.comp.java.openjdk.core-libs.devel.

Learned::“Blink” and the Art of Hiring the Best – Assembla Consulting: Accelerate Your Software Development

It turns out that personal interviews tended to result in the hiring affable, good looking men, and lock out some great players who didn’t fit a visual image of what an orchestra player should look like. Without the screen, the personal, visual impression of the candidate is so powerful that it actually affects the sound that the committee heard. They thought they were selecting the best audition player, but when they used the screen, and really were able to listen to the audition, they heard differently. The human mind, your mind and mine, is filled with powerful biases. Some of those biases are useful for making quick decisions, others are just misleading. Its important to manipulate your process to screen out the misleading stuff and get the good stuff.
via “Blink” and the Art of Hiring the Best – Assembla Consulting: Accelerate Your Software Development.

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