rePost-Hope This Does Not Come To Pass-Foreign Policy In Focus | Asia: The Coming Fury

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I’ve admired Prof Bello for a long time. I’ve enjoyed stories about him tearing celebrity professors a new one(Celebrity professors/acamedics tend to be more in the communications field and tend to be less in the academic world!).But I sure hope he is wrong about this! Thanks to Angry Bear for the liunk

The Coming Fury
The sudden end of the export era is going to have some ugly consequences. In the last three decades, rapid growth reduced the number living below the poverty line in many countries. In practically all countries, however, income and wealth inequality increased. But the expansion of consumer purchasing power took much of the edge off social conflicts. Now, with the era of growth coming to an end, increasing poverty amid great inequalities will be a combustible combination.
In China, about 20 million workers have lost their jobs in the last few months, many of them heading back to the countryside, where they will find little work. The authorities are rightly worried that what they label “mass group incidents,” which have been increasing in the last decade, might spin out of control. With the safety valve of foreign demand for Indonesian and Filipino workers shut off, hundreds of thousands of workers are returning home to few jobs and dying farms. Suffering is likely to be accompanied by rising protest, as it already has in Vietnam, where strikes are spreading like wildfire. Korea, with its tradition of militant labor and peasant protest, is a ticking time bomb. Indeed, East Asia may be entering a period of radical protest and social revolution that went out of style when export-oriented industrialization became the fashion three decades ago.
Walden Bello is a Foreign Policy In Focus columnist, a senior analyst at the Bangkok-based Focus on the Global South, president of the Freedom from Debt Coalition, and a professor of sociology at the University of the Philippines.
Foreign Policy In Focus | Asia: The Coming Fury.

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rePost : Needs to be Broadcast, Why Aren't You Ashamed Of Yourselves!: Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Gregory Clark Is Chairman of the Department of Economics at the University of California at Davis

University of California, Davis

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Gregory Clark Is Chairman of the Department of Economics at the University of California at Davis
Greg Clark writes:
Dismal scientists: how the crash is reshaping economics: The current recession has revealed the weaknesses in the structures of modern capitalism. But it also revealed as useless the mathematical contortions of academic economics…. The debate about the bank bailout, and the stimulus package, has all revolved around issues that are entirely at the level of Econ 1. What is the multiplier from government spending? Does government spending crowd out private spending? How quickly can you increase government spending? If you got a A in college in Econ 1 you are an expert in this debate: fully an equal of Summers and Geithner. The bailout debate has also been conducted in terms that would be quite familiar to economists in the 1920s and 1930s. There has essentially been no advance in our knowledge in 80 years.
It has seen people like Brad DeLong accuse distinguished macro-economists like Eugene Fama and John Cochrane of the University of Chicago of at least one “elementary, freshman mistake.”
Well, Greg? Don’t be shy. Be brave! Tell us: Is Fama right? Does the NIPA savings-investment identity guarantee that the stimulus cannot work because of 100% crowding out? Or has he made an elementary, freshman mistake?
Greg goes on:
Bizarrely, suddenly everyone is interested in economics, but most academic economists are ill-equipped to address these issues. Recently a group of economists affiliated with the Cato Institute ran an ad in the New York Times opposing the Obama’s stimulus plan. As chair of my department I tried to arrange a public debate between one of the signatories and a proponent of fiscal stimulus — thinking that would be a timely and lively session. But the signatory, a fully accredited university macroeconomist, declined the opportunity for public defense of his position on the grounds that “all I know on this issue I got from Greg Mankiw‘s blog — I really am not equipped to debate this with anyone”…
Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Gregory Clark Is Chairman of the Department of Economics at the University of California at Davis.

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rePost:Belief In A Loving God/ A Loving Life:Who wants to go to heaven? at Paulo Coelho’s Blog

Zürich (Switzerland) - The Brazilian writer Pa...
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For those who believe in God or even who just believes in life, I’ve come to the belief(too many belief in this sentence) God/the Universe is not conspiring against me at worst it does not care for me/us, thus I try to live life in a manner that if not optimistic at least neutral. I still don’t knwo/understand life but I feel that If I am to continue living here I believe in Love!

Who wants to go to heaven?
Published by Paulo Coelho on February 16, 2009 in Stories
A priest – who saw the devil in the pleasures of life – went to the town tavern and asked everyone there to attend church that evening. Everyone obeyed. With the church filled to the last pew, the priest roared out:
– Stop all this drinking! All those who want to go to heaven, raise their right hand!
The entire congregation raised their hand – everyone but Manoel, who was held by all to be a dignified man who fulfilled all his duties.
Surprised, the priest asked:
– And you, Manoel, don’t you want to go to heaven when you die?
– Of course I do. But I still haven’t experienced the life that God has given me, and you want to take it away from me already!
Welcome to Share with Friends – Free Texts for a Free Internet
Who wants to go to heaven? at Paulo Coelho’s Blog.

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Philippine Stimulus

Seems Congress is prepairing 100 billion peso stimulus package, roughly 5 percent of nominal GDP, not bad in scale, but I haven’t seen any of the details.(Can’t seem to find an online copy). As usual opposition makes noise because corruption would probably eat most of the stimulus, and recent reports suggests that they are going to use money from the SSS and GSIS. This is frankly scary because this is shadowing/mimicking what happened in the pre-need crisis early this decade. The GSIS and SSS do not have as large an endowement to begin with and it is probably not a good idea to enter investments they do not have any experience with. (I am reading reports that they plan on investing in infrastructure projects, which is very scary, because most of these projects are just not profitable in a purely financial sense, rather they are profitable in a societal utility sense.)

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Advice For The PE–This Is Your Brain on Prosperity: Andrew Lo on Fear, Greed, and Crisis Management – Freakonomics Blog – NYTimes.com

Excellent Advice for the PE Obama.

In the long run, more transparency into the “shadow banking” system; more education for investors, policymakers, and business leaders; and more behaviorally oriented regulation will allow us to weather any type of financial crisis. Regulation enables us to restrain our behavior during periods when we know we will misbehave; it is most useful during periods of collective fear or greed and should be designed accordingly. Corporate governance should also be revisited from this perspective; if we truly value naysayers during periods of corporate excess, then we should institute management changes to protect and reward their independence.

If “crisis is a terrible thing to waste,” as some have argued, then we have a short window of opportunity — before economic recovery begins to weaken our resolve — to reform our regulatory infrastructure for the better. The fact that time heals all wounds may be good for our mental health, but it may not help maintain our economic wealth.

This Is Your Brain on Prosperity: Andrew Lo on Fear, Greed, and Crisis Management – Freakonomics Blog – NYTimes.com.

Regulation Framing

I think this can be framed more effectively as , thinking of outcomes. S regulation is closer/more correlated (I think) to the outcome compared with that of L regulation, and that is why I think it is better!

I tend to agree with Tyler Cowen that individual moral propensities are less important than overall social context. To borrow from a different branch of social psychology, I would say that Packer is committing the Fundamental Attribution Error.

In my view, the problem comes from trying to use what I call letter-of-the-law regulation in finance. Call it L regulation. With L regulation, the regulator lays down specific, quantitative boundaries (think of risk-based capital requirements, with fixed numerical weights for various types of assets). The managers of financial institutions are told to stay within those boundaries.
In contrast, think of something I might call S regulation, for spirit of the law. With S regulation, the manager of a financial institution that enjoys some government protection would take an oath to maintain the safety and soundness of the institution. With S regulation, it is wrong to just tiptoe along the edge of the quantitative boundaries, without considering the potential risk to the firm.
Suppose we take it as given that government is going to protect some of the liabilities of some institutions, because of deposit insurance, implicit guarantees, “too big to fail,” or other reasons. I would like to see such institutions be covered by S regulation even more than by L regulation.
I would like to see managers of government-protected institutions take an oath to safeguard the soundness of their companies. I would like to see them subjected to prison terms for violating that oath. The oath is a general promise, not satisfied simply by staying within the boundaries of L regulation.
I believe that S regulation would change the motives of bank managers. They would be looking for ways to avoid failure, rather than for ways to stay within the letter of the law.
There can be plenty of risk-taking institutions in our society. But they should not at the same time be institutions that enjoy government protection when they fail.
Economist’s View: “The Moral Stage of Wall Street”.

Unintended Consequences Welfare Mothers Edition

ouch

The number of welfare claims unambiguously decreased, but at what cost? More education increases the value of your human capital which leads to higher wages and more self-sufficiency. The authors wonder if discouraging education might ultimately leave the women more dependent on state benefits than they would if education were encouraged. The trade-off is a classic example of the choice of short-term gain and long-term pain.
Economist’s View: Short-Sighted?.

Congratulations Paul Krugman! – Freakonomics – Opinion – New York Times Blog

More than any other recent Nobelist, Krugman is no stranger to the general public. I’m sure that his other role as a New York Times columnist and an outspoken critic of the Bush administration will be the lede in discussions of this prize. But the prize is given for scientific research, and economists of all political stripes agree that Krugman’s economic writings are Nobel-worthy.
Even so, Krugman’s broader role is not, and should not, be irrelevant. Over the past decade or so, he has been a determined crisis chaser, offering useful insights on topics like the Asian financial crisis, Latin America, and, well, the United States.
Indeed, his real-time analysis of the current crisis has been important and helpful in shaping the policy debate.
The risk of real-time policy advice is that you risk being wrong; the upside is that you may actually affect the policy debate while it is going on. Krugman has the courage to be on the right side of this risk-reward tradeoff, even as too many economists prefer being slow, correct, but irrelevant to being fast, mostly right, and extremely relevant.
Whether you like his Times columns or not, you have to admire Krugman’s tenacity. He personifies the true public intellectual, and even when he writes a column that irritates you, at least you know it involves careful thought and a true dedication to the public debate.
Beyond his column, he’s also a popular textbook author, and was one of the first economists to understand the power of the web as a way of communicating to a broader audience.
In fact, only 40 minutes after the prize was awarded, Krugman’s blog was updated with a wry message: “A funny thing happened to me this morning …”
There’s no way that Krugman will remember this, but I remember clearly the first time I met him.
In the summer following my first year of graduate school, I attended an S.S.R.C.-run workshop designed to reconnect aspiring economists with real-world economics. Krugman was a speaker at the workshop. After his talk, he spent the evening around a fireplace enjoying a few beers and sharing his career wisdom with the gathered graduate students. These sorts of investments in the economics profession don’t occur in the public eye, and they require a real belief in the power of economics.
Congratulations Paul!
Congratulations Paul Krugman! – Freakonomics – Opinion – New York Times Blog.

Congratulations To Paul Krugman

One of the people whom I deeply respect, and his blog probably is a close third to (Brad Delong’s blog and Marginal Revolutions Blog) that I frequently link to, (the post that this follows was a link from his NYT blog).
I’d be lying if I said that I understood beyond the general principles his work on trade, but prof Krugman always seems to speak his mind, and he has a way of explaining things that endears him to his readers.

from AFP :

US economist Paul Krugman wins Nobel Economics Prize

STOCKHOLM (AFP) — US economist Paul Krugman, a prolific New York Times columnist and fierce critic of Washington’s economic policies, won the Nobel Economics Prize on Monday, the Nobel jury said.
Krugman, 55, a Princeton University professor, has formulated a new trade analysis theory which determines the effects of free trade and globalisation, as well as the driving forces behind worldwide urbanisation, the citation said.
Speaking to Swedish public television immediately after the prize announcement, Krugman said the award “obviously will seriously warp my next few days.”
“I hope that two weeks from now, I’m back to being pretty much the same person I was before,” he said, adding: “I’m a great believer in continuing to do work. I hope it doesn’t change things too much.”
The Nobel Economics Prize has been especially closely watched this year owing to the ongoing global financial crisis.
A number of experts had predicted that the worldwide crisis would, in the future at least, prompt the Nobel committee to shift its focus further away from the heavily prized liberal market theories widely blamed for the mess.
And by awarding Krugman, a critic of unfettered free-market policies who has focused heavily on globalisation and the developing world, the jury has indeed decided to confront major, civilisation-changing issues.