Rules Of Thumb — Marginal Revolution: Rationality is a Property of Equilibrium

I have a post on rules of thumb written in one of my notebooks (The problems of only being able to write in using pen and paper, is you have to type it later, argh).
One of my points is that Rules Of Thumbs are incomplete if they are not accompanied with the bounds that they are effective.

Rationality is a Property of Equilibrium
Some thoughts on rationality and economics, perhaps for a future paper, motivated by the financial panic:
Rationality is a property of equilibrium. By this I mean that rationality is habitual and experience-based and it becomes effective as it becomes embedded in the rules of thumb and collective wisdom of market participants. Rules of thumb approximate rational decision rules as market participants become familiar with an economic environment. Individuals per se are not very rational; shift the equilibrium enough so that the old rules of thumb no longer apply and we are likely to see bubbles, manias, panics and crashes. Significant innovation is thus almost always going to come accompanied with a wave of irrationality. When we shift to a significant, new equilibrium rationality itself is not strong enough to tie down behavior and unmoored by either reason or experience individuals flail about liked naked apes – this is the realm of behavioral economics. Given time, however, new rules of thumb evolve and rationality once again rules but only until the next big innovation arrives.
Posted by Alex Tabarrok on January 13, 2009 at 07:20 AM | Permalink
Marginal Revolution: Rationality is a Property of Equilibrium.

Not Yet–All by ourselves alone – Roger Ebert's Journal

But let me stop place-dropping. These places do not involve only a visit, but a meditation: I have been here before, I am here now, I will be here again. Robert Altman told me he kept track of time not by the years, but by the films he was working on. “I’m always preparing the next film,” he said. That is living in a time outside time. Of course everyone’s time must run out. But not yet. Not until I’m finished touching a few more bases. I will sit in the corner by the fire in the Holly Bush again, and stand in the wind on top Parliament Hill, and I know exactly how to find that cafe in Venice, although I could never describe the way. Oh, yes I do.
All by ourselves alone – Roger Ebert’s Journal.

The Law of Jante at Paulo Coelho’s Blog

from paolo coelo:

Of course I had never heard of this, so he explained what it was. I continued on my journey and discovered it is hard to find anyone in any of the Scandinavian countries who does not know this law. Although the law exists since the beginning of civilization, it was only officially declared in 1933 by writer Aksel Sandemose in the novel “A refugee goes beyond limits.”
The sad truth is that the Law of Jante is not restricted to Scandinavia: this is a rule applied in every country in the world, despite the fact that Brazilians say that “this only happens here,” and the French claim that “unfortunately, that’s how it is in our country.” Now, the reader must be annoyed because he/she is already half way through the column and still does not know what the Law of Jante is all about, so I’ll try to explain it here briefly in my own words:
“You aren’t worth a thing, nobody is interested in what you think, mediocrity and anonymity are your best bet. If you act this way, you will never have any big problems in life.”
The Law of Jante at Paulo Coelho’s Blog.

I believe that people inherently want to be the great, its just that fear stops them from even trying. Whenever anyone haas the courage to try to be really great, to really blaze a trail we are faced with our initial inability to overcome our fear. The existence of someone courageous enough to try rubs our insecurities and inabilities to even try.
Whenever faced with this I tell myself this from here:

Our Greatest Fear —Marianne Williamson
it is our light not our darkness that most frightens us
Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate.
Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure.
It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us.
We ask ourselves, who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous,
talented and fabulous?
Actually, who are you not to be?
You are a child of God.
Your playing small does not serve the world.
There’s nothing enlightened about shrinking so that other
people won’t feel insecure around you.
We were born to make manifest the glory of
God that is within us.
It’s not just in some of us; it’s in everyone.
And as we let our own light shine,
we unconsciously give other people
permission to do the same.
As we are liberated from our own fear,
Our presence automatically liberates others.
—Marianne Williamson

Feeling So Familiar–Global Voices Online » Japan: “What are you up to now?” has become a taboo question

And this is how we kicked off our thirties. In our twenties, all of us were running full steam ahead, taking the long route to life. But now the fatigue has built up, I think we’re all just tired. Out of our whole group, there was not a single person who, thinking about how they would spend the next ten years, envisioned a bright future. Everyone was concentrating their attention on just getting by for the time being, and nothing else.
Global Voices Online » Japan: “What are you up to now?” has become a taboo question.

Feeling So Familiar!

“I’m in my twenties , but why does this feel so familiar, Why is it that I get the feeling that this guy could be one of many from my circle or friends.”

Dani Rodrik's weblog: The inescapable trilemma of the world economy

So I maintain that any reform of the international economic system must face up to this trilemma. If we want more globalization, we must either give up some democracy or some national sovereignty. Pretending that we can have all three simultaneously leaves us in an unstable no-man’s land.
Dani Rodrik’s weblog: The inescapable trilemma of the world economy.

A year old posts but more important to note now that the world is in a Severe Economic Crisis the decisions and compromise that the world leaders choose basically impact my and my generations adult life. This probably has a more formal name but I’ll call it the tragedy of progress, where in the previous generation either build the pitfalls or the stepping stones of the next generation.

Great Read ===> Hardwood Paroxysm: What Doesn't Kill You Only Makes You Less Likely To Rebound: Seven Seconds Or Less And The Dark Knight

Great article on Mike D’Antoni’s Seven Seconds Or Less and Dark Knight!

Now, conversely, Simmons’ article also is a good reference point because it speaks to the prevailing counter-argument. The tenets of rational order, you might say. The tenets are that defense wins championship, toughness always wins over flash, and that you can’t play basketball like that and expect to win. And just like in the Dark Knight, the end seems to justify that train of thought. The Joker got caught, the Spurs won the title, and all is right with the world (don’t even get me started on the similarities between Batman accepting the responsibility of being hunted by the police and criticized for his good intentions and the Spurs being constantly dogged as “boring”). But there’s also something telling in what the Joker tells Batman, hanging there, laughing at him.

“I think you and I are destined to do this forever.”
Just because SSOL failed in the desert doesn’t mean it will always fail, and it didn’t mean the end of the movement. Because tonight, when the Knicks, with Al Harrington firing threes and Nate Robinson splitting defenders, beat the Celtics, with all their defense, all their fundamentals, all their strength, you saw a glimpse of it. The battle’s eternal, and necessary between the two. Chaotic, freewheeling mania versus controlled, disciplined order.
Now, of course, this isn’t meant to idolize the violent murder the joker takes as whimsy, nor to link D’Antoni to that kind of behavior. But there’s a reason that no one goes around quoting any of Christian Bale’s lines from that film, a reason that Ledger is posthumously up for an Oscar and was spoken of a nomination before his passing, a reason that when you think of that film, you think of the Joker. And it’s the same reason kids love to dunk, that we like the fastbreak more than the halfcourt, and why Gilbert Arenas is on the All-Star ballot despite not playing a tick and Bruce Bowen has never been a serious DPOY of the year candidate. It’s human nature, and it plays out every night on the court.
The best part is that there will never be an answer to the question. The fundamentalists will respond with “Who’s got the rings?” and the other side will respond with a cackle and just a simple…
“You’ll see. I’ll show you.”
Hardwood Paroxysm: What Doesn’t Kill You Only Makes You Less Likely To Rebound: Seven Seconds Or Less And The Dark Knight.

Nice Comment on Work Effort And Success!

from here

And yes, I get paid well, and I get treated well, and I probably have it better than 99% of people out there. Am I thankful for that? I absolutely am every single day. I realize how awesome it is to love what I do, but I didn’t just fall into it. I wasn’t just handed it. And every single day isn’t gumdrops. I think I worked pretty hard to get where I am. Am I spoiled? I wouldn’t say so. Okay, maybe a tiny bit. But when it really comes down to it, do I know any developers who are very successful and don’t pour their heart and soul into their work?
Absolutely not.

The Problem With Torture

Reading something so short and yet be able to say that the way you think and feel has been changed!
from wroing the rights here:

And the problem with torture is not that it produces untrustworthy information. That is a problem, certainly -we should not expend resources on useless results- but torture would still be unacceptable if it produced the sterling truth every time.

The problem with torture is different.
Torture is the subversion of the body to overthrow the soul. When a person breaks, he is broken: he will give up any information, do whatever is asked of him. He no longer exists as an independent being, a member of society. He is only an instrument of his torturer. His sole aim becomes “make it stop.” That is a cancer on any free society.

A Comment On Rick Warren Not Believing Evolution from Paul Krugman's NYT Blog

If God exists, my denying it will not make it disappear. If God does not exist, the 96% of the world, according to Warren, who believd a God exists will not make it true.
Evolution, for the most part, is logical, and becomes more valid as time progresses. We already know that everything…mineral, plant, animal…is made of the same particles, both here and in the thus-far tested universe.
On the other hand, I am rooting for a heaven as if my afterlife depended on it.
— Joseph O’Shaughnessy
Huxley wept – Paul Krugman Blog – NYTimes.com.

Words To Feel!

It is never too late to learn a new habit; never to early to shed the old like dead, useless skin. Bad habits are formed by the slow and steady accumulation of mindless minutes. As a million years of rainfall will smooth the slope of a mountain summit, so do a million misplaced moments warp our good intentions.
We all are capable of reverse engineering our own bad behavior, but we cannot unlock the door without looking for the key.
Breaking a Bad Habit Shatters the Rung Beneath You | Zen Habits.