{"id":7262,"date":"2018-01-06T06:45:04","date_gmt":"2018-01-06T06:45:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/?p=7262"},"modified":"2018-01-06T06:45:04","modified_gmt":"2018-01-06T06:45:04","slug":"this-is-the-most-important-fallacy-youve-never-heard-of","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/index.php\/2018\/01\/06\/this-is-the-most-important-fallacy-youve-never-heard-of\/","title":{"rendered":"This Is the Most Important Fallacy You\u2019ve Never Heard Of"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>What mistakes do we make in evaluating our decisions?There\u2019s this word that we use in poker: \u201cresulting.\u201d It\u2019s a really important word. You can think about it as creating too tight a relationship between the quality of the outcome and the quality of the decision. You can\u2019t use outcome quality as a perfect signal of decision quality, not with a small sample size anyway. I mean, certainly, if someone has gotten in 15 car accidents in the last year, I can certainly work backward from the outcome quality to their decision quality. But one accident doesn\u2019t tell me much.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Source: <em><a href=\"http:\/\/nautil.us\/issue\/55\/trust\/the-resulting-fallacy-is-ruining-your-decisions\">This Is the Most Important Fallacy You\u2019ve Never Heard Of<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What mistakes do we make in evaluating our decisions?There\u2019s this word that we use in poker: \u201cresulting.\u201d It\u2019s a really important word. You can think about it as creating too tight a relationship between the quality of the outcome and the quality of the decision. You can\u2019t use outcome quality as a perfect signal of &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/index.php\/2018\/01\/06\/this-is-the-most-important-fallacy-youve-never-heard-of\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;This Is the Most Important Fallacy You\u2019ve Never Heard Of&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[62],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-personal-angol"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7262","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7262"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7262\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7262"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7262"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7262"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}