{"id":1229,"date":"2009-03-05T04:35:12","date_gmt":"2009-03-05T09:35:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/?p=1229"},"modified":"2009-03-05T04:35:12","modified_gmt":"2009-03-05T09:35:12","slug":"repostclosed-and-skeptical-minds-musicians-drunks-and-oliver-cromwell-the-endeavour","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/onthe8spot.com\/index.php\/2009\/03\/05\/repostclosed-and-skeptical-minds-musicians-drunks-and-oliver-cromwell-the-endeavour\/","title":{"rendered":"rePost:Closed and Skeptical Minds : Musicians, drunks, and Oliver Cromwell \u2014 The Endeavour"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Image by SUPERL0L0<\/a> via Flickr<\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

I forgot from what blog I got the advice but I remember distinctly an advice I got that said “be wary with people who say impossible” or something to that effect.\u00a0 I realize now after reading this post from chuck’s shared items what that really meant.
\nPeople who love or are in a habit of saying impossible is more probably of the closed\/skeptical mind<\/a> type, there is nothing wrong with being skeptical but there is for me something wrong with being close minded. When you are close minded you are living a life ruled by bias that you may or may no longer know how you came about having. When you live like this for a long time you end up with outdated\/no longer true beliefs\/ideas.
\nWhy? This is because the world changes so fast and if you are not aware of a lot of the reason(like the previous post a lot of the evidence that influence our beliefs are somewhat invisible to us) you think\/act a certain way you maybe doing something that is going against what you originally intended to do or achieve.
\nThe take away in my view is three things:
\n-Try to journal what is influencing your thoughts.
\n-Constantly reexamine beliefs to understand if these beliefs\/actions\/habits are already outdated and should be stopped.
\n-Finally creating your own personal framework to make this as normal as breathing!<\/p>\n

Dennis Lindley<\/a> coined the term \u201cCromwell\u2019s rule\u201d for the advice that nothing should have zero prior probability<\/a> unless it is logically impossible. The name comes from a statement by Oliver Cromwell<\/a> addressed to the Church of Scotland<\/a>:<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ<\/a>, think it possible that you may be mistaken.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In probabilistic<\/a> terms, \u201cthink it possible that you may be mistaken\u201d corresponds to \u201cdon\u2019t give anything zero prior probability.\u201d If an event has zero prior probability, it will have zero posterior probability<\/a>, no matter how much evidence is collected. If an event has tiny but non-zero prior probability, enough evidence can eventually increase the posterior probability to a large value.
\nThe difference between a small positive prior probability and a zero prior probability is the difference between a skeptical mind and a closed mind<\/a>.<\/strong>
\nMusicians, drunks, and Oliver Cromwell \u2014 The Endeavour<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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