Image by SUPERL0L0 via Flickr

I forgot from what blog I got the advice but I remember distinctly an advice I got that said “be wary with people who say impossible” or something to that effect.  I realize now after reading this post from chuck’s shared items what that really meant.

People who love or are in a habit of saying impossible is more probably of the closed/skeptical mind type, there is nothing wrong with being skeptical but there is for me something wrong with being close minded. When you are close minded you are living a life ruled by bias that you may or may no longer know how you came about having. When you live like this for a long time you end up with outdated/no longer true beliefs/ideas.

Why? This is because the world changes so fast and if you are not aware of a lot of the reason(like the previous post a lot of the evidence that influence our beliefs are somewhat invisible to us) you think/act a certain way you maybe doing something that is going against what you originally intended to do or achieve.

The take away in my view is three things:

-Try to journal what is influencing your thoughts.

-Constantly reexamine beliefs to understand if these beliefs/actions/habits are already outdated and should be stopped.

-Finally creating your own personal framework to make this as normal as breathing!

Dennis Lindley coined the term “Cromwell’s rule” for the advice that nothing should have zero prior probability unless it is logically impossible. The name comes from a statement by Oliver Cromwell addressed to the Church of Scotland:

I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken.

In probabilistic terms, “think it possible that you may be mistaken” corresponds to “don’t give anything zero prior probability.” If an event has zero prior probability, it will have zero posterior probability, no matter how much evidence is collected. If an event has tiny but non-zero prior probability, enough evidence can eventually increase the posterior probability to a large value.

The difference between a small positive prior probability and a zero prior probability is the difference between a skeptical mind and a closed mind.

Musicians, drunks, and Oliver Cromwell — The Endeavour.

Reblog this post [with Zemanta]