On the 8 Spot

The right of reply bil would like to ensure that the party referred to by a media report has a law defined right to air his side. Its all fine and good in theory but let’s analyze this in its proper context and we would realize that like libel it is another tool that powerful people use to suppress the truth and/or bullying by the media. Ordinary people like me do not have the resources to hire lawyers to try to sue people for libel or if this becomes law try to force media organizations to air my side. Generalizing this, although I have been extremely critical of the Philippine media, the toolset of powerful people in the Philippines would be the only one that is helped by this bill.

Media groups vow stiff defense against RORB

03/04/2009 | 09:02 AM

MANILA, Philippines – After failing to come to terms with lawmakers, media groups vowed Wednesday to stage a “man-to-man” defense against the passage of the Right of Reply Bill in Congress.

National Press Club president Benny Antiporda said they will not allow the passage of the RORB, which he likened to a “beautiful woman with AIDS.”

GMANews.TV – Media groups vow stiff defense against RORB – Nation – Official Website of GMA News and Public Affairs – Latest Philippine News – BETA.

This is sad to read. In the Philippines people are labeled early on because of close family ties, where 2nd or 3rd degree relatives see each other at least once a year. One thing I observe in these awkward situation is the way people give young kids labels that tend to be based on superficial reasons that then I believe sometimes become self fulfilling.

The power of stereotypes

Reputations can be self-fulfilling prophecies ; if you give a man a bad name, he‘ll live down to it. A new paper (pdf) by Thomas Dee shows this.

He did an experiment at Swarthmore College, asking a group of students to take a GRE test. Before the test, some students were asked about their sporting activities, and whether these conflicted with their academic work, whilst others were not asked.

And Mr Dee found that the athletes who were asked these questions performed significantly worse than the athletes who weren’t.

This suggests that when people are primed to be aware of a stereotype – “jocks are dumb” – they are more likely to behave in accordance with it.

Stumbling and Mumbling: The power of stereotypes.

Thanks to Paul Wilmott for the pointer here. I learned a lot from this article by Felix Salmon and its somewhat fun to read!

In the world of finance, too many quants see only the numbers before them and forget about the concrete reality the figures are supposed to represent. They think they can model just a few years’ worth of data and come up with probabilities for things that may happen only once every 10,000 years. Then people invest on the basis of those probabilities, without stopping to wonder whether the numbers make any sense at all.

As Li himself said of his own model: “The most dangerous part is when people believe everything coming out of it.”

Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street.

Explains why the authors think that the present financial crisis is the start of the Second Age of SME’s. Excellent read.

Think small. Think efficient. Share the returns.

…

The point we’re trying to make, however, is that in an economic climate like this, only a SME could afford to offer such discounts, and that it is precisely this ability that will enable such businesses to flourish despite the problems we face. For the first time in years, small businesses have the ability to truly shine, and we’d love to hear how some of our fellow players are using small and efficient business practices to attract customers and grow, despite everything going on around them.

Vesess » The Second Age of SMEs.

When I was in high school and for most parts of college I kept my watch handy at all times. The MTRCB approval was needed for any film shown commercially and it listed the total run time of the film. The combination of my watch/(and for two years a stopwatch) and the knowledge of the running time of the film has saved me from being naive about a film, if their were any surprise twist left etc.  The bad thing about this is that I began to be less emotionally involved with the film I was watching; When I was bringing stopwatches/watches to theaters I was always checking it to see how the pace was going, the action to chatter ratio. The exposition versus the confrontation ratio and other minutae that was although nice to discuss with other film lovers was mainly an exercise in film intellectual stimulation. When I discovered Roger Egbert’s online reviews I was mainly entraced by his love for film, it seemed he had different levels of looking at films. As a film critic, as a film lover, as a lover of stories , and a lover of emotions. I began to see that in trying to one-up other people’s/stranger’s/friend’s observation skills and views I lost that connection to that part of me that just wanted to be escapist and enjoyed a film, whether the lighting/camera work is not as good as it could have been or how smart a film is. I got this back by only being conscious of the time whenever I watch a movie for the second time. I haven’t used a Kindle and I suspect that as long as we (Philippine Consumers) are forced to jump through so many hoops to get a kindle I won’t be using one anytime soon, but I think that it would really improve my naivete !

In a normal book, an author cannot have the antagonist fall with an ensorcelled death-sword in its belly with one-third of the pages left to go and expect the reader to be surprised at what comes next. The thickness of the pages beneath one’s right hand scream: “THAT’S NOT THE ANTAGONIST, SCHMUCK!!!”

Reading it on the Kindle–the sudden appearance of the were-bats has an extra punch that it cannot have in the hard copy…

Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Amazon’s Kindle and the Recovery of Readerly Naivete; or, Were-Bats–the Big Bug Scourge of the Skies!.

Can’t say I blame him.  People generally hate being different in a real way. The way I observe things, it seems most people just want to stand-out in the center of attention kind of way and not in the different trailblazing kind of way that I admire!

What you think of as just you job consumes probably from 2-10 hours of a 24 hour day. If you add in all the stuff you do because of work like commuting/preparing reports outside office hours/even shopping for office clothes/stuff etc . You can’t deny that what you call as just your job consists of the majority of your usable waking hours.

We need to take charge of our lives and have pride in what we do, and as human beings we have the capacity to think and analyze complex stuff.  Why are we not doing exactly that?

As for the picture, for somer strange reason Zemanta thinks it’s relevant!

But that’s only part of the problem. Far more serious, because it extends to all of finance not just to a single model, is the poor education that people get in university financial engineering programs and also the blind-following-the-blind behaviour that is so common throughout the industry.

The copula model is not robust to changes in model assumptions. Black-Scholes is. Did you know that? Or maybe I’m wrong. Would you like to know the truth?

Yes, I could tell you. I could spoonfeed you. You’ve got used to being spoonfed, haven’t you? But you’re passing the buck there, putting an awful lot of responsibility on my shoulders. I can cope, as I’m sure David Li can cope. But you’re a big boy/girl now, you should be able to think for yourself. Isn’t that part of your job description?

It’s getting quite tedious me telling people to get off their backsides and test the models for themselves. Don’t believe anything I say, don’t believe anything Nassim, also quoted in the Salmon article, says. Question everything. Switch your brains back on.

Paul Wilmott’s Blog: Copulas and Cults.

This is a nice short list of advice for students working on projects  skewed towards software projects! Excellent and short read so go read it!

Notes for Students Working on Projects

My compiler students are getting to the point where they should be deep in writing a parser for their language. Walking back from lunch, I was thinking about some very simple things they could do to make their lives — and project — better.

Knowing and Doing: February 2009 Archives.

I think one big thing that is different here is that in most of those systems the snowball effect is less than in the financial system. But I have to say that I feel for the sentiment and hope that the small individual actions of each company/individual/Government end up to be enough to fix things!

But then it didn’t happen. January 1st 2000 went by, and pretty much nothing happened. While some people then pronounced that the whole Y2K thing had been a fraud, the truth was much more interesting and important. It hadn’t been a fraud; there had been real and consequential risks in important and complex systems. If those problems hadn’t have been addressed, many of the consequences imagined by the apocalypticists might well have happened. We could, in the limit, have been facing real breakdowns in societal fabric.

So, why didn’t the worst happen? In part what happened is this: People acted. While they were late, slow, stupid, and error-prone, they did what people do when a big enough alarm bell is rung loudly and long enough: They tried to figure out what they could do in the time they had to reduce their risk, and they did those things. They didn’t think other people would get there, but they knew they would.

Paul Kedrosky’s Infectious Greed.

I’ll pretend I have readers!hehe!

Guys let’s all try to help Jacqueline Novogratz and Acumen Fund in thier work!

My friend Jacqueline Novogratz, founder of the Acumen Fund, is at the forefront of making the world smaller. She has the unique ability to combine the financial and the spiritual in a way that does justice to both.

Her new book, The Blue Sweater, publishes in the United States this week. It’s the work of a passionate amateur, an honest memoir of someone who has lived a life most of us can only dream of. When you read of Jacqueline’s experiences as a naive banker newly arrived in Africa, or her extraordinary efforts to connect people of similar spirit but different cultures, you can’t help but become emotionally involved in the positive energy that’s spreading everywhere.

It may seem like this book has little to do with what I write about all day, or what you focus on in your work, but nothing could be further from the truth. No matter what you do, the smaller world is coming to your doorstep. No matter how you spend your day, the living, breathing, interacting big world is going to touch your private one.

An anonymous donor has put up $75,000 in a matching grant–if you buy the book this week, $15 will be donated to Acumen (for each of the first 5,000 copies sold). I hope you’ll take advantage and order a copy today. Thanks.

Seth’s Blog: How big is your world?.

Go to the site and Watch the video, very interesting!

Diversions: Adam Savage on Obsession

By Paul Kedrosky · Saturday, February 28, 2009

As a self-confessed obsessive personality (but you knew that, right?) I enjoyed this Adam “Mythbusters” Savage talk on the nature of some obsessions in his own life. It revolves, mostly, around Dodo birds and the Maltese Falcon.

Paul Kedrosky’s Infectious Greed.